And now for our regularly scheduled Monday post…
“You either have the confidence of the House or you do not have the confidence of the House, and there's no grey zone,” said Mr. Martin a few days ago on the subject of election timing. Well, it certainly looks like we’re going to see the latter within the next week or so, thus unleashing the ‘dreaded’ Christmas election upon Canadians.
A ‘Christmas election’ does not fill me with joy, though I don’t dread it for most of the reasons being reported. For one thing, it won’t be me out there door-knocking in the snow (although we have hardly seen any snow here in Edmonton yet, and it’s already Nov.21! Hmmm, reminds me to post my thoughts on global warming soon). For another, since it looks like I’ll be visiting Ontario over Christmas, it will give me a rare opportunity to see (at least) the election from a non-Alberta perspective (and also determine if there’s an ‘Ontario perspective’ that’s different from a ‘national media perspective’). And finally, because no matter how many Liberals and Conservatives over the next two months are going to be saying (and saying, and saying…) that their party needs a strong mandate (i.e. a majority government) from Canadians to get things done, my fearless election prediction is that the next Parliament isn’t going to look a whole lot different from the last one. In other words, it’s not that I dread an election now, it’s that I don’t see much point to one.
Let’s look at it from the Conservatives’ point of view. As I understand Conservative thinking (which is not an oxymoron!), is that if they say ‘Gomery’ loud enough, often enough during the campaign, there will be a groundswell movement to ‘throw the bastards out’. The problem is that so far, this particular groundswell has only been seen in the West and in Québec. In the West, there simply aren’t enough bastards left to throw out that will make all that much difference, and in some ridings (like Vancouver-Centre) the beneficiary is much more likely to be the NDP (how I loathe the thought of Svend Robinson back in the House again) than the Conservatives. And it takes some real Technicolor dreaming to envision Conservative MP’s from Québec in the near future… So that leaves Ontario.
But to produce a majority, the Conservatives will have to win (by my calculation) 75-80 seats in Ontario, which is a big swing and big swings like that are not just usually produced by ‘throw the bastards out’ alone. There has be a strong element of ‘throw the bastards in’ as well, and if that’s what Ontario is thinking, they’re hiding it very well! Of course, a smaller swing in Ontario might produce a Conservative minority government. Now in the last campaign, that was a realistic and even acceptable goal as the first Conservative government in over a decade could at last demonstrate to the country that Conservatives aren’t ‘scary’. But this time, that goal is much less satisfactory. Because in the limited lifetime offered by a minority government, either Harper will have to something fairly big to distinguish himself from the current government (which will immediately be translated as ‘scary’ by the Toronto Star, the CBC et.al. and likely precipitate another election). The other option is to govern much as Paul Martin has, making daily deals to survive, announcing long-term changes to taxation/spending that don’t have to fulfilled, not rocking the boat, etc. The problem with that (apart from being dull as dirt and about as heartening to the conservative ‘base’) will come during the next election where Mr. Harper’s ‘non-scary’ ‘liberal-lite’ government will be then up against the genuine article, which will almost certainly be revitalized and under new leadership and I’m not optimistic about that contest.
The problem with all this analysis is that I really don’t see all that much to do about it. I don’t think that changing leaders is the answer and not because I have any attachment to Mr. Harper – I don’t, but because I don’t see anyone out there who can do a whole lot better.
So, to come full circle, now you know the source of my dissatisfaction with this election, I don’t really see how it helps us (by us I mean conservatives as well as Conservatives) and even if we achieve a minority government (which I think is the best, realistic goal to hope for) all we end up doing is a favour for the Liberals by giving them the chance to remove Mr. Dithers (I mean Mr. Martin), currently our biggest asset…
“You either have the confidence of the House or you do not have the confidence of the House, and there's no grey zone,” said Mr. Martin a few days ago on the subject of election timing. Well, it certainly looks like we’re going to see the latter within the next week or so, thus unleashing the ‘dreaded’ Christmas election upon Canadians.
A ‘Christmas election’ does not fill me with joy, though I don’t dread it for most of the reasons being reported. For one thing, it won’t be me out there door-knocking in the snow (although we have hardly seen any snow here in Edmonton yet, and it’s already Nov.21! Hmmm, reminds me to post my thoughts on global warming soon). For another, since it looks like I’ll be visiting Ontario over Christmas, it will give me a rare opportunity to see (at least) the election from a non-Alberta perspective (and also determine if there’s an ‘Ontario perspective’ that’s different from a ‘national media perspective’). And finally, because no matter how many Liberals and Conservatives over the next two months are going to be saying (and saying, and saying…) that their party needs a strong mandate (i.e. a majority government) from Canadians to get things done, my fearless election prediction is that the next Parliament isn’t going to look a whole lot different from the last one. In other words, it’s not that I dread an election now, it’s that I don’t see much point to one.
Let’s look at it from the Conservatives’ point of view. As I understand Conservative thinking (which is not an oxymoron!), is that if they say ‘Gomery’ loud enough, often enough during the campaign, there will be a groundswell movement to ‘throw the bastards out’. The problem is that so far, this particular groundswell has only been seen in the West and in Québec. In the West, there simply aren’t enough bastards left to throw out that will make all that much difference, and in some ridings (like Vancouver-Centre) the beneficiary is much more likely to be the NDP (how I loathe the thought of Svend Robinson back in the House again) than the Conservatives. And it takes some real Technicolor dreaming to envision Conservative MP’s from Québec in the near future… So that leaves Ontario.
But to produce a majority, the Conservatives will have to win (by my calculation) 75-80 seats in Ontario, which is a big swing and big swings like that are not just usually produced by ‘throw the bastards out’ alone. There has be a strong element of ‘throw the bastards in’ as well, and if that’s what Ontario is thinking, they’re hiding it very well! Of course, a smaller swing in Ontario might produce a Conservative minority government. Now in the last campaign, that was a realistic and even acceptable goal as the first Conservative government in over a decade could at last demonstrate to the country that Conservatives aren’t ‘scary’. But this time, that goal is much less satisfactory. Because in the limited lifetime offered by a minority government, either Harper will have to something fairly big to distinguish himself from the current government (which will immediately be translated as ‘scary’ by the Toronto Star, the CBC et.al. and likely precipitate another election). The other option is to govern much as Paul Martin has, making daily deals to survive, announcing long-term changes to taxation/spending that don’t have to fulfilled, not rocking the boat, etc. The problem with that (apart from being dull as dirt and about as heartening to the conservative ‘base’) will come during the next election where Mr. Harper’s ‘non-scary’ ‘liberal-lite’ government will be then up against the genuine article, which will almost certainly be revitalized and under new leadership and I’m not optimistic about that contest.
The problem with all this analysis is that I really don’t see all that much to do about it. I don’t think that changing leaders is the answer and not because I have any attachment to Mr. Harper – I don’t, but because I don’t see anyone out there who can do a whole lot better.
So, to come full circle, now you know the source of my dissatisfaction with this election, I don’t really see how it helps us (by us I mean conservatives as well as Conservatives) and even if we achieve a minority government (which I think is the best, realistic goal to hope for) all we end up doing is a favour for the Liberals by giving them the chance to remove Mr. Dithers (I mean Mr. Martin), currently our biggest asset…
posted by Quynn at 9:37 p.m.
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